Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Selsema Babi yang tidak menjangkiti Babi?

Aneh bukan?. Dunia diwar-warkan dengan sejenis penyakit yang dinamakan 'SELSEMA BABI' dan telah meragut beratus-ratus nyawa MANUSIA . Anehnya TIDAK ADA SEEKOR BABI pun yang mati. Lantas mengapa kita menyalahkan babi?

Jika wabak nipah dahulu membunuh banyak babi dan kemudian baru menyebabkan manusia yang MENYENTUH babi mendapat penyakit tersebut yang kemudiannya menjangkiti pengamal perubatan yang merawat pesakit. Kita dapati ada salah silah turunnya penyakit tersebut dari babi kepada manusia.

Dalam kes selsema babi ini, TIADA laporan mengatakan ada babi selsema, tiba-tiba kita dapati ada banyak manusia mati sebab babi selsema. Begitulah bagaimana dunia diadun dan dibentuk oleh propaganda media barat yang mempunyai agenda tersendiri.

Benar, penyakit tersebut wujud, tetapi kemungkinan besar penyakit ini tidak datang dari babi. Ia datang dari BABI-BABI yang bekerja dimakmal yang mempunyai agenda yang masih samar-samar.

Ada banyak bukti yang menunjukkan bahawa babi yang sebenar tidak bersalah dalam hal ini. Satu fakta yang tidak diulas panjang adalah virus selsema ini adalah kombinasi virus babi dan selsema burung dan virus manusia. Ia diadun didalam makmal bukan didalam kandang.

Ditengah-tengah kemelut ekonomi global ini, tiba tiba berlaku krisis yang berskala global juga, maka tanda-tandanya tidaklah elok untuk kita semua .

Sunday, April 26, 2009

The Swine Flu Pandemic- Something we should take note.

I don't know whether this is the international crisis Joe Biden was referring to but nevertheless we should take all necessary precaution as this flu appear to be much more fatal to human as compared to Asian avian flu.

The Spanish flu that wiped out 50m lives is actually a bird flu (click here) and for the good of mankind few scientist have actually revived the deadly strain (click here) but not before they created a vaccine specifically for this purpose (click here). What a co incidence! .It reminds me of Professor Klon of Cicakman movie

Mexico City
Imperial County, California
San Diego County, California
San Antonio, Texas
Long Island, New York
Queens, New York
Chappqua, New York
Ontario, Canada

The H1N1 virus is a hybrid of swine flu, which is highly contagious, and avian flu, which is similar in effect to the 1918 so-called "Spanish" flu, plus human influenza. The fatalities are mostly within the 25 to 45 age grouping. Ironically, it is the good health of this young adult population which causes the fatalities as the avian flu triggers a severe immune response which leads to excessive edema. This in turn ruptures the cell walls leading to hemorrhagic symptoms. Patients bleed out into their lungs and drown.

There is no vaccine known to the public for this particular virus. There are vaccines for related viruses thought to possibly be effective, but this is unreliable information. In response to the problems of the 1976 Swine Flu vaccine which caused neurological damage in patients as well as the more recent Baxter scandal in which live H5N1 virus was mixed in with vaccine materials, the government of Sweden has advised their population NOT to obtain vaccinations at this time. As was demonstrated in the 1976 case, the decision to force vaccines on the public are often made more from a commercial for-profit concern than what is actually best for the population.

At this time it is being claimed that primary infection is skin-to-skin contact, so wash your hands often with a good bacteriological soap. Avoid touching other people. While risk of direct transfer by air is low, according to CDC, the reality is that coughs and sneezes can produce aerosolyzed secretions in which the virus is surrounded by liquids and able to survive for prolonged periods of time outside the body. If this virus has a lipid coating, that time will be longer.
Disinfection of household surfaces can be accomplished with a dilute (10%) solution of chlorine bleach and water will kill the virus. So will strong light, especially ultra-violet light.
Given the similarity between the avian flu component of this new virus and the 1918 Spanish flu, a possible precaution to take is common household cinnamon from the spice rack. During the 1918 outbreak it was noticed that people who worked at a cinnamon processing factory did not catch the disease. Cinnamon in high doses can be toxic, but 500 Mg a day for adults seems like a reasonable dose.

It is entirely possible that this three-way hybrid virus occurred by chance, but there is compelling reason to wonder if maybe this virus is a laboratory accident, or worse, an intentional attempt at de-population.
Here are some of the relevant facts.
Back in 2004, we were being propagandized that Bird Flu was the next pandemic.
CDC was talking about recombinant viruses back in 2005.
Gene studies showed that so-called Bird Flu appeared to be nearly identical with the 1918 Spanish Flu
Which is rather nerve-wracking because in 2005 it was admitted that scientists were intentionally recreating the 1918 Spanish Flu virus!
But the predicted pandemic didn't happen because Bird Flu isn't that contagious. It needed to be blended with a more infectious form of flu, like swine flu (Used as a bio-weapon by the CIA against Cuba), to became a real slate-wiper!
In 2006, it was reported that scientists were intentionally creating bird flu and swine flu hybrids in the labs!
Which leads to asking how it is that this new flu epidemic explodes into view right after Fort Detrick admits that some of the nasty little beasties they have been working on went missing!

taken from what really happened.com

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Incoming Storm

Profits mask coming storm
By W Joseph Stroupe

Contrary to surface appearances such as the recent stock market rally and "glowing" first quarter profitability statements from certain Wall Street banks, multipronged risks for renewed, considerable turmoil in the US financial sector are mounting. The recent six-week rally on Wall Street, led mostly by banking and other financial shares, isn't based on any concrete turnaround in the deeply worrying fundamentals of the financial sector. Instead, it is based largely on the fact that the new administration has trotted out into public view multiple and very large government programs aimed at cleansing the banks' balance sheets of huge sums of toxic assets, unlocking the persistently seized credit

markets, stemming the swiftly mounting foreclosure rate, creating jobs, and otherwise stimulating an early economic revival. None of these aims and goals has been accomplished yet, not even in part, but investors were heartened by the raft of government programs that has been announced, and they have responded by bidding up banking and other shares on Wall Street, hoping that the bottom of the crisis in the financial sector has already been reached. However, that bottom hasn't been reached, and is still nowhere in sight, despite the recent quarterly profit reports by a few of the largest US banks. It should come as no surprise that Wall Street financial institutions that have been in receipt of massive sums of bailout money and have been targeted by varied "liquidity" operations from the government are suddenly able to report a "profit".

Additionally, much of the "profit" reported for the first quarter resulted from one-off events that have little or no chance of seeing a repeat. In these most recent quarterly statements, the accounting and reporting methods have been altered so as to put a better face on their operations and fiscal position. Their already notoriously "fuzzy" math, which permitted banks to arbitrarily designate which assets are included in their profit statements and which ones are not, now also conveniently permits them to arbitrarily decide which losses are "temporary" and can be excluded from the statement altogether.

Consequently, "fuzzy" has now gotten even fuzzier. Why? And, why now? Wall Street financial institutions have suffered a gross loss of investor confidence in this crisis and have seen their share values ravaged as a result. Hence, there is a concerted and vigorous effort underway on their part to bolster that collapsed confidence, with the aim of driving the value of their shares back up. Remember, these big institutions all participated in one way or another in the grossly deceptive schemes and practices that created and artificially inflated fundamentally risky investment assets, grossly overstated their creditworthiness, and sold them on to unsuspecting investors - the massive swindle that brought us into this crisis in the first place, a crisis that emerged right on Wall Street itself. Hence, it is nothing for such firms and their accounting and credit rating accomplices to engage once again in spin, deceptively cooking the numbers to make their position look much better than it really is, so as to attract investors and drive up share prices. Sovereign wealth funds around the globe, having suffered huge losses on their investments in US banks, can be described by the adage "once bitten, twice shy".

Many have decided to largely divest themselves of their holdings in US financial shares. Why? They no longer trust the banks to disclose their true financial position fully, accurately and honestly. The savvy investor will keep such facts very close in mind. Now, with the May 4 deadline for releasing the government stress test results bearing down on us, Wall Street institutions have much greater reason and motive for spinning their financial position (propagandizing investors) - none of Wall Street's big banks wants to take a renewed hit as a result of being portrayed by the stress tests as being in a less-than-desirable financial condition.

Therefore, the Wall Street spin machines are operating at full speed, striving to portray the 19 banks involved in the stress tests as profitable, stable, healthy and vibrant. They are doing everything they can to maintain, and bolster, the fundamentally frail investor confidence they have regained in the past six weeks, and they are trying to position themselves to massively capitalize on the release of the stress test results if they can, or at least to minimize their potential ill effects. The entire idea of the stress tests has come under fire as a bone-headed scheme that was aimed at restoring confidence but will almost certainly accomplish the exact opposite. If the results paint a rosy picture for all 19 banks, then investors will pan the stress tests as having no credibility, and their suspicions and fears that the banks and the government are lying about their true condition will probably skyrocket. If any of the 19 banks get less than flying colors in the stress test results, then those banks will likely see their shares take a renewed pounding as investor confidence collapses again.

There may well be depositor runs on such banks, depleting their capital and bringing on a renewed crisis. If the government and/or the banks themselves do not release meaningful data on May 4, then investors will conclude that the results were too grim, and a new crisis of confidence will result. But if too much information is released, then the same thing could likely be the result because a number of respected experts warn that the US banking system is fundamentally insolvent. The government and the banks do not want investors at large to see hard data that only bolsters that dismal assessment.

The Barack Obama administration has thus painted itself into a potentially very grim corner with the stress tests. Almost no matter what is done on May 4, the risks of a new crisis of confidence in the US financial sector are significantly rising. Why such a bleak assessment here of the current fiscal position of the US financial sector? First, as noted above, the US financial sector is not providing a clear and true picture of its fiscal position.

Instead, it is seeking to paper over its fundamental insolvency with quarterly reports that are long on spin and short on hard, uncooked data. Why? The answer is quite simple. Full disclosure of its true position would not be in the interests of reviving America's fundamentally flawed model of "securitization", which has experienced a massive collapse and to this day has not been revived. Can it be revived? At what cost? Remember that there are two fundamental camps with respect to the answer to the question of what lies at the root of the present crisis.

One camp holds that America's new generation of financial assets that resulted from the recently invented financial process known as "securitization" are fundamentally sound in value, and that an over-reaction on the part of investors to the subprime crisis has resulted in a panic-induced collapse in their valuations. This camp believes that the securitization model can and should be revived, and that when investor confidence is restored in financial assets now seen as "toxic", then all will be well again, almost magically, as toxic assets become valuable and attractive once again. All that need be done, it is believed, is for the government to work with Wall Street to jump-start securitization, a model this camp vehemently denies has failed, even though many trillions of dollars both spent and committed already have so far failed to get securitization's heartbeat going again. The other camp believes that the toxicity is inherent in the very nature of the newly developed financial assets themselves, and that once investors recognized this fact, then that is why their values collapsed.

This camp sees the securitization model as fundamentally flawed, based as it is upon artificial inflation of assets, the shortsighted growth of serial asset bubbles created by an unholy de facto alliance of government, big Wall Street banks and credit-rating agencies whose credibility and integrity were profoundly compromised, and unsustainable negative real interest rates (the creation of a massive credit excess), without which the securitization model simply won't run.

This camp sees no future for assets that have gone toxic. It sees the collapse that began in late July 2007 with the emergence of the subprime crisis as one that massively discredits the model itself. This camp believes that a revival of securitization will come at the cost of a dollar crisis only a moderate distance down the road, and that even if the model is revived, it won't be able to avoid a second, massive crash. The US government and Wall Street are laboring feverishly to get securitization's heart beating again. That is fundamentally what is behind all their efforts. Crucial to this task, they believe, is restoring investor confidence in the model itself and in the innovative financial markets and modern financial assets it has created.

Much like producers and sellers of tainted wine who've been found out and who've watched their product prices collapse as buyers shun the wine for its toxic risks, they're in cooperation again, minimizing the taint and trying to sell the sparkle as they did before this crisis broke. It is unlikely to succeed in attracting investors on the scale needed to revive securitization. But even if it does, the currency is being set up for a massive collapse when the proverbial bill soon comes due. Therefore, essentially, on the level of the model itself, the US financial sector is headed for a more massive collapse than we've seen already, even if revival efforts were to somehow succeed in breathing life into the sector temporarily.

The second reason that this assessment here of the current fiscal position of the US financial sector is so bleak is because real events on the ground, occurring as we speak, demand such realism. Many times I have drawn attention to the simple concept of the self-reinforcing downward spiral that has come to life within this ongoing crisis, a downward spiral that encompasses both the financial and economic sectors. Turmoil in the financial sector creates both a seizure of credit and higher costs for credit of all kinds, which feeds directly and indirectly down the line into the economic sector, translating into losses for business and individuals. Those losses result in rising business failures, job losses, foreclosures and bankruptcies, and collapsing spending, investment and asset prices.

These developments feed back, in turn, into the financial sector as banks and other institutions suffer greater losses and as the list of their toxic assets grows by leaps and bounds. This, in turn, causes the credit seizure to persist and to tighten, which feeds directly down the line into the economic sector again, and the downward spiral continues and gains momentum. Though simple in nature, this downward spiral has been profoundly resistant to all the trillions of dollars thrown at it so far in an effort to break its grip.

Additionally, its dramatic influence over where we're headed is too often minimized or forgotten altogether, until unfolding events bring a painful reminder. In this respect, the first-quarter results of the Bank of America, announced on Monday, April 20, contain such a reminder - despite showing a "profit", credit losses are swiftly mounting as the quality of credit continues to deteriorate rapidly, without any reprieve. The Dow lost nearly 300 points that day, led by a fall in financial shares. Just ahead, there exist strong indications of the real possibility of renewed, much deeper turmoil in the financial sector, in addition to what we're already seeing.

The upcoming release of the stress test results may well provide a trigger for such renewed turmoil, which will feed once again down the line into the real economy, the economic sector, and only strengthen the downward spiral that exists between those two sectors. We may see Wall Street rallies like the one that began six weeks ago, but they won't resolve the fundamentally grim picture for the US, which is firmly in the grip of forces that it unleashed upon itself. The US government and its Wall Street accomplices lack the insight, power, ability and integrity to break the downward spiral anytime soon. Thus, it will run its own course, just as it has been doing for many months already.

W Joseph Stroupe is a strategic forecasting expert and editor of Global Events Magazine online at www.globaleventsmagazine.com (Copyright 2009 Global Events Magazine, All Rights Reserved

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Nga Kor Ming Ahli Politik Terulung Malaysia

Dengan berat hati aku harus mengangkat tangan memberi tabik hormat kepada Pengerusi DAP Perak YB Ustaz Hj David Nga Kor Ming kerana beliau adalah ahli politik terulung di Malaysia. Kita harus mengakui kebolehan beliau berpolitik. kebolehan yang bukan calang-calang. DSAI sendiri tidak mampu melakukan apa yang beliau lakukan.

UMNO harus membuka mata seluas-luasnya kepada bintang muda ini. Beliau telah berjaya melakukan apa yang UMNO gagal melakukan sepanjang hayat UMNO. UMNO harus ambil perhatian kerana Ustaz Nga akan membaca talkin kematian UMNO nanti. Percayalah.

Presiden PAS, Ustaz Hadi akan sentiasa dikaitkan dengan AMANAT HJ HADI yang terkenal itu. Aku masih di universiti ketika itu, dan kaset mesej ini dimainkan dengan kuat keseluruhan bangunan kolej kediaman kami oleh rakan-rakan yang begitu taksub dengan perjuangan PAS.
Tidak pernah aku menyangka sebaliknya berlaku. Begitulah apa bila tuhan mengkehendaki.

Belum pernah dalam sejarah UMNO, ayat-ayat AlQuran yang dibaca oleh ustaz UMNO dihormati dan diraikan oleh mana-mana ahli PAS. Hatta oleh mufti Kerajaan UMNO pun tidak dipandang langsung kerana dikalangan mereka banyak ulamak yang boleh memberi sebarang 'counter fatwa'. Begitulah jauhnya Islam UMNO dan Islam PAS. Malah suatu ketika dahulu sembahyang berimamkan UMNO pun macam melayu nampak anjing kurap. Kalau orang UMNO mati, maaflah, kering sendiri tak bertanam.

Hari ini seorang ustaz muda tampil dimarkas PAS. Bukan calang-calang orang mampu pergi ke markas PAS dan memberi tazkirah dan diraikan . Beliau di beri tepukan dan diberi anggukan.
Siapa sangka PAS mampun dijinakkan dengan sebegini cara. Beliau telah menjelaskan ISLAM yang sebenar kepada kita. ISLAM itu persaudaraan, ketelusan dan keadilan katanya. Kita tidak membenci UMNO kerana UMNO itu UMNO katanya.......(heheh ini aku tambah)

UMNO patut sungguh berasa malu. Sejak tahun 1956 UMNO tidak berjaya melahirkan ulamak MCA. Tiada Ulamak Gerakan apalagi Ulamak MIC. UMNO patut melihat cermin kerana tidak ada ulamak MCA yang datang bertazkirah ke PWTC. Tidak ada!

Semoga istaqamahlah ustaz David Nga, semuga dengan berkat dan rahmat sekelian alam, selepas ini Khalifah Lim Guan Eng dan Khalifah Lim Kit Siang akan bertandang dan memberi kita tazkirah.

Selamat datang ke Dunia Baru Poltik Malaysia.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Penanti Penat Menanti BN?

Aku tak pernah menyangka yang UMNO/BN akan mengeluarkan fatwa pembaziran kepada satu lagi PRK. Sejak bila pula UMNO/BN amat prihatin kepada pembaziran tidak lah aku ketahui. Sejak bila pula UMNO/BN tidak gemar kepada PRK juga tidaklah aku tahu.
Aku harap kenyataan DSN hanyalah strategi politik sahaja kerana pada pendapat aku lebih baik kalah digelanggang dari kalah kerana tidak berani masuk gelanggang. Hanya kerana kita pasti akan kalah jadi tak perlu bertanding tidak menggambarkan roh perjuangan. Jika itu alasannya mangapa tidak kita bubarkan semua persatuan sukan dinegara ini yang tidak pernah menang sebarang pertandingan. Bubarkan MSN dan bayangkan betapa banyak kita bole berjimat.
Semangat demokrasi adalah hak untuk memilih diberi kepada rakyat marhaen. Jika BN tidak bertanding maka hak untuk memilih telah dinafikan kepada rakyat terbabit. Hak untuk memberitahu bahawa demokrasi hidup dan subur ditanah watan ini telah dibunuh hanya kerana kita takut pada kekalahan.
Bayangkan kerosakkan yang akan dilalui oleh BN jika ia tidak bertanding. Bayangkan kekalahan moral yang akan dilalui oleh pendokong-pendokong UMNO di Penanti. Pada aku ini adalah waktu terbaik BN untuk mencuba pendekatan baru, mencuba strategi baru dan mencuba falsafah baru dalam menangani masalah.
Kita tak perlu takut pada kekalahan kerana kekalahan juga ada impak positif kedalam diri manusia. Seorang pejuang tulen tidak pernah takut pada kekalahan, seorang pejuang tulen berjuang untuk menegakkan idealisma perjuangan. Kekalahan tidak akan mematahkan semangat sebaliknya menjadikanya lebih kental. Kita hanya akan dapat membezakan pejuang sebenar dan pejuang palsu didalam kekalahan. Disaat kemenangan banyak orang akan mengaku pejuang. Disaat kekalahan barulah kita dapat mengenal yang mana sanggup menangis bersama-sama kita dan yang mana pengecut.
Tapi jika Kepala UMNO sendiri sudah mengistiharkan begitu apa pula isyarat yang hendak dihantar kepada massa. Biar kekalahan demi kekalahan menjengah kita, kita istiqamah kepada apa yang diperjuangkan. Itu jikalau kita benar-benar percaya dengan apa yang kita perjuangkan.
Perlu diingat UMNO cuma kalah dengan majoriti 2 ribu lebih sahaja di Penanti pada PRU yang lalu. Perlu diingat bahawa UMNO memenangi undi melayu di Bukit Gantang dan Selambau. Inilah masanya untuk memberitahu rakan-rakan BN kita untuk membuktikan semangat perjuangan mereka. Jangan hanya bila UMNO kuat sahaja mereka hendak berkawan, bila UMNO tersepit mereka lintang pukang melarikan diri.
Orang Melayu perlukan suara untuk membela mereka. Jika UMNO tidak berani menjerit dan melaungkan ketuanan mereka siapa lagi? Takkan hanya berani menghunus keris didalam dewan semata? Laa ni keris pun tak berani nak hunus hanya angkat dalam sarung. Adakah kerana UMNO kini diterajui oleh Pondan yang duduk bawah ketiak bini?

Saturday, April 18, 2009

Malaysia sebagai Tapak baru Tamil Eelam?

Ketika Tan Sri Musa selaku Ketua Polis Negara membuat kenyataan yang Hindraf Malaysia adalah satu pertubuhan yang mempunyai kaitan dengan Tamil Eelam, ramai yang kurang percaya. Maklumlah Polis Malaysia dipandang serong kerana dianggap condong kepada Kerajaan BN. Lagipun Hindraf sudah dianggap sebagai satu senjata oleh pihak Pakatan Rakyat kerana Hindraf dapat digunakan oleh mereka untuk menimbulkan huru hara bagi tujuan yang hanya mereka sahaja yang tahu.
Kemudian timbul isu memorandum kepada Gordon Brown yang penuh dengan dakwaan yang diluar batas akal untuk diterima. Konon-kononnya mereka dibunuh dan ditindas secara penghapusan etnik oleh kerajaan UMNO(klik disini). Ini amat melukakan hati orang-orang Melayu dan masih menjadi bara yang belum sejuk.
Kemudian timbul pula isu Timbalan Ketua Menteri Pulau Pinang adalah penyokong kuat Tamil Eelam malah pernah membuat lawatan ke Sri Lanka dan menganjurkan program-program yang menyokong aktiviti Tamil Eelam. Malah Prof ini dikatakan amat dedikasi dengan penubuhan satu negara Eelam di Sri Lanka ( klik disini) . Bagaimana seorang warganegara Malaysia memainkan peranan utama dalam satu pertubuhan pengganas dan dibiarkan pula bergerak bebas melakukan aktiviti yang menyokong pertubuhan ini amat disangsikan.
Kini tanpa berselindung wakil-wakil rakyat yang dipilih oleh rakyat Malaysia menjadi wakil bagi orang-orang Tamil Sri Lanka (klik disini). Aku bukan mempersoalkan kemanusiaan mereka, sebagai orang Islam aku amat arif tentang betapa tergurisnya perasaan apabila melihat saudara-saudara aku disembelih di Gaza. Aku cuma ingin mencantumkan gambar-gambar kecil yang ada untuk melihat gambaran sebenarnya.
Jika saudara-saudara membaca akhbar NST hari ini ada satu artikel tentang kebimbangan bahawa Tamil Eelam akan mencari tapak baru untuk perjuangan mereka dan negara yang paling disyaki adalah Malaysia!. Hal ini telah diketahui kerana Malaysia adalah tapak yang strategik untuk mereka kerana populasi Tamil yang tinggi di negara ini(klik sini).
Faktor-faktor begini merupakan api didalam sekam bagi Malaysia. Musuh-musuh serantau (sekalipun kelihatan jiran yang baik, mereka akan menggunakan semua faktor strategik untuk kelebihan mereka tanpa perlu membuang walau sebutir peluru) akan mengeksploitasi ini semua bagi melemahkan negara.
Aku harap sangkaan aku ini hanya pigmen imaginasi sahaja.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Portfolio Pertahanan patut diberi kepada Bekas Tentera

Melihat kepada lantikan kabinet DSN yang lalu kita melihat ada beberapa trend perlantikan menteri dan timbalan menteri. Selain dari corak lantikan biasa yang bertujuan untuk meredakan atau meraih sokongan politik, ada trend yang menimbulkan banyak pertanyaan iaitu;

1. Lantikan orang yang bukan ahli politik
2. Lantikan orang yang tiada jawatan dalam parti

Ini bukan tidak pernah dilakukan. Mahathir melakukanya. Abdullah melakukannya. Cuma dalam hal ini aku rasa DSN telah terlepas peluang keemasan untuk menonjolkan imej yang lebih professional dalam kabinetnya.

Bukan berniat untuk mempersoalkan kredibiliti beliau, aku sebenarnya tidak nampak dimana signifikannya lantikan Senator Dato Jamil Khir Baharom sebagai Menteri di Jabatan Perdana Menteri. Jika lantikan tersebut bertujuan untuk memberi peniktirafan kepada tentera kita yang banyak berkorban untuk negara, why not go all the way? Mengapa tidak kita lantik Bekas Jeneral yang kita tahu memang mempunyai pengetahuan yang luas dalam isu-isu pertahanan dan tidak dinafikan pengalaman dan tahap professionalisma mereka, sebagai Menteri atau Timbalan Menteri Pertahan?

Banyak negara mengambil pendekatan ini, contohnya Indonesia, Thailand, Singapura, Amerika, Russia, Israel dll. Mengapa kita tidak boleh mengambil pendekatan serupa?

Sejak sekian lama portfolio pertahanan dipegang oleh orang awam yang tidak terlatih didalam doktrin pertahanan negara. Sejak sekian lama juga Kementerian ini digunakan sebagai lubuk emas oleh kelompok-kelompok berkepentingan dengan berbagai-bagai keputusan yang diragui dan dipersoalkan. Sejak sekian lama perolehan pertahanan mungkin bukan dibuat atas dasar kepentingan pertahanan semata tetapi oleh oleh kehendak komersial serta pengaruh -pengaruh lain.

Bagaimana kalau portfolio pertahanan ini dikhaskan untuk bekas tentera sahaja. Pertama sebagai penghargaan diatas sumbangan mereka didalam mempertahankan negara, kedua menggunakan pengalaman mereka yang luas dalam isu-isu pertahanan nasional, serantau dan dunia.

Sebagai sebuah negara kecil denga sumber terhad, Malaysia sudah tidak mampu membazirkan sumber-sumber alam termasuk sumber modal insan yang berharga. Jika dahulu Menteri Pertahanan kita mempunyai tuan penasihat yang kononnya penganalisa pertahanan . Aku percaya Bekas Jeneral tidak perlukan sokongan seperti itu. Kuranglah kes-kes sumbang yang sampai melibatkan nama baik negara.

Begitu juga apabila Dato Zahid Hamidi dilantik sebagai Menteri Pertahanan, beliau perlukan banyak masa untuk menyesuaikan diri. Beliau ahli perniagaan berjaya, corak pemikiran beliau lebih condong kepada konsep perniagaan dari pertahanan. Kata orang 'Learning Curve will be costly'.

Dalam perkiraan aku, ekonomi dunia akan menghadapi kemelut selama bertahun-tahun untuk stabil. Keadaan ini akan menghasilkan banyak konflik geo ekonomi dan geo politik. Waktu begini kita perlukan kepakaran pertahanan untuk memastikan kita selamat.


Thursday, April 16, 2009

Long Recession on the way?

The news are getting louder and louder, The IMF said that long recession is on its way. My earlier posting cited Ron Paul saying US is facing a 15 year recession. Now if this is really happening I doubt our little stimulus can do very much. Singapore economy is shrinking by as much as 20% so far. Though Malaysia has so far managed to navigate itself, I doubt if we can withstand the onslought if the world economy continue going south next year.
The US is facing another round of collapse, this time it is the commercial property market turn. Somebody predicted something BAD is going to happen this week (click here).
WASHINGTON, April 16 — The current global recession is likely to be unusually long and severe and the recovery sluggish because it sprang from a financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund said today.

New IMF analysis shows recessions tied to a financial crisis, like the current one that has its roots in reckless lending for the US housing market, are more difficult to shake because they are often held back by weak demand.

Worse still is that today’s recession combines a financial crisis at the heart of the United States, the world’s largest economy, with a broader global downturn making it unique, the Fund added.
“The analysis suggested that the combination of financial crisis and a globally synchronised downturn is likely to result in an unusually severe and long lasting recession,” the IMF said in chapters of its World Economic Outlook, which is to be released in full on April 22.
It said counter-cyclical policies can help shorten recessions but its impact is limited in the presence of a financial crisis.

Fiscal stimulus can be particularly effective in shortening the life of a recession though not appropriate for countries with high debt levels, it added. In its most recent forecast, the IMF said the world economy will shrink in 2009 by between 0.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent, the largest contraction since the Great Depression. With advanced economies all in recession and growth in emerging market economies slowing abruptly, the IMF has urged countries to move quickly to clean up their financial sectors, in particular remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets, which would allow the economy to mend.

The IMF said dealing with the current global recession will require coordinated monetary, fiscal and financial policies. In the short term, aggressive monetary and fiscal policy measures are needed to support demand. Still, the IMF said restoring confidence in the financial sector was vital for economic policies to be effective and for recovery to take hold.
Emerging market stress

Turning to emerging economies, the IMF said the current level of financial stress in emerging market countries has already hit peaks seen during the 1997-98 crisis.

It said abrupt slowdowns in capital inflows have typically had dire consequences in these countries. The extent of the spillover from advanced to emerging economies is related to how closely their financial sectors are linked.

Using a new financial stress index, the IMF said current stress levels in advanced economies suggest capital flows to emerging economies, especially flows related to banking, will decline sharply and will recover slowly.

The latest reading from February 2009 shows that the steepest decline — an annual contraction of 17.6 per cent — was recorded in central and eastern Europe, the region hardest hit by the crisis. Even countries with lower current account and fiscal deficits, and higher foreign reserves, cannot escape financial the spillover from advanced economies, the IMF said.

However, as a recovery takes hold, those with smaller current account and fiscal deficits can make a quicker comeback than those with bigger deficits, it added. — Reuters

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Terjebak dengan retorik lagi....

Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi membuat satu kesilapan besar diawal pemerintahan beliau apabila beliau melaungkan konsep Islam Hadhari. Suatu konsep yang akhirnya bertukar kepada Islam ada Had, Islam ada Hari.

Sebenarnya beliau cuba membuat sesuatu yang biasa didalam strategi pemasaran. strategi ini dinamakan penjenamaan semula. Rebranding, repackaging, entah apa-apa re lagi. Tetapi apa yang beliau cuba 'repackage' dan 'rebrand' adalah sesuatu yang tidak boleh di jenamakan semula sebab ia adalah satu falsafah,satu kepercayaan, satu konsep , satu cara hidup yang kemudiannya telah pecah kepada 73 bahagian. Kerana Abdullah tidak memikirkan dengan betul strategi ini (beliau tertidur agaknya), strategi ini memakan dirinya sehingga beliau digelar sebagai imam besar Islam Hadhari dan sebagainya.

Memilih jalan yang sama, DSN mengambil konsep Satu Malaysia untuk menjenamakan dirinya. Cuma beliau terlupa kita tidak berada di zaman Joseph Goebbels. Dimana satu populasi manusia boleh di acu pemikirannya dengan propaganda yang berterusan. Di zaman Goebbels tidak ada Internet!. Di zaman itu informasi boleh diacu mengikut kehendak penguasa.

Konsep 'Satu Malaysia' sebenarnya tidak 'viable' untuk diacu sebagai jenama DSN dari awal lagi. Ini kerana UMNO sendiri tidak memperjuangkan konsep itu. UMNO tidak diasaskan oleh falsafah Satu Malaysia.

Konsep Satu Malaysia adalah konsep 'Malaysian Malaysia' DAP. Konsep 'Malaysian Malaysia' DAP melihat semua orang malaysia sama taraf kecuali orang Cina.

Katalah apapun, Satu Malaysia pada hakikatnya tidak wujud, kerana kita tidak pernah melihat diri kita sebagai satu. Bagaimana kita hendak melihat diri kita sebagai satu jika kita ada Bumiputera sebagai tuan tanah, Cina yang tidak mahu menjadi selain Cina dan India yang kalau boleh ingin hidup di Bollywood? Bagaimana kita hendak menjadi satu Malaysia jika pemberita akhbar Cina tidak faham beza konsep 'tidak menghargai' dan 'tidak berterima kasih'??

Sebenarnya DSN tidak perlu membuang masa dengan retorik. Retorik hanya laku di zaman Mahathir . Zaman dimana maklumat adalah komoditi, retorik tidak mempunyai kesan. Kalaupun berkesan, kesannya hanya sekejap dan bersifat setempat.

Dalam hal ini kita patut mencontohi Indonesia yang bertunjangkan Bhinneke Tunggal ika (Unity in Diversity). Kita raikan keMelayuan, keCinaan, keIndiaan atau apa-apa lagi, tetapi kita menghormati hak-hak untuk wujud secara saksama, keadilan sejagat . Kita bersetuju untuk tidak bersetuju, kita menghormati hak untuk memilih.

DSN akan memberi lebih makna dalam pemerintahan beliau jika beliau menjemput semua Ahli Parlimen untuk memberi pandangan termasuk yang memaki beliau didalam Parlimen tempoh hari. Beliau akan lebih dihormati jika menyelesaikan isu gadis Mongolia dengan lebih terbuka.
Banyak yang diharapkan dari DSN. Bukan retorik kosong, bukan propaganda untuk menaikkan imej semata. Beliau perlu jujur dengan rakyat yang diperintahnya.


Saturday, April 11, 2009

UMNO yang masih hanyut...

Jika dilihat dari riak dalam cawan UMNO sudah ada suara-suara yang mempersoalkan pemilihan barisan kabinet oleh DSN. Sudah ada suara -suara tidak berpuas hati. Sudah ada yang mempersoalkan kebijaksanaan percaturan DSN. Itulah UMNO!

Mentaliti politik UMNO berpaksikan kepada imbuhan datang bersama kedudukan. Seboleh-bolehnya tiada siapa yang dibenarkan melanggar hirarki. Adat melangkah bendul tidak boleh ada didalam UMNO. UMNO tidak memberi peluang kepada meritokrasi untuk menempatkan diri. Sebaliknya orang-orang lama yang berakar umbi merasa lebih berhak untuk mendapat kedudukan dan kuasa diatas dasar senioriti semata-mata. Jika ada bintang yang berkerlipan terlalu awal banyak yang sudah dicantas untuk mengelak persaingan.

Selagi ketua mengambil kira semua ini selagi itu ia mendapat sokongan. Jika ketua lari dari aturan permainan maka cepat-cepat ketua akan diketuk kepalanya. Sistem ini akan menghasilkan ketua yang dilihat terlalu lembik akibat mendengar semua suara dan mangambil kira semua pendapat dan membuat keputusan secara kolektif atau ia akan menghasilkan ketua bersifat autokratik yang akan memastikan suara suara bangkangan didiamkan untuk meneruskan agenda masing-masing. Tiada jalan tengah.

Jika ketua mempunyai konviksi yang kukuh maka lahirlah pemimpin seperti Tun Mahathir yang bersifat autokratik atau yang hanya bersifat sebagai pentadbir seperti Tun Abdullah badawi ( Mungkin juga tepat ulasan fadzil Nor yang beliau hanya layak jaga Unta yang tak banyak bangkang).

Sistem yang ada sekarang tidak mendahulukan kelestarian parti sebaliknya lebih bersifat mempertahankan 'panglima' (istilah yang betul untuk warlods?) masing-masing. Sistem ini lebih bersifat teritorial. Jika ada bintang yang hebat dari wilayah lain tidak akan diberi peluang untuk bersinar diwilayah lain sekalipun ia susau yang merugikan kepada parti untuk jangkamasa panjang.

Hasilnya selepas beberapa waktu parti tidak mempunyai banyak pilihan kerana sistem ini menghasilkan kacukan dalaman yang hasilnya lebih inferior. Maka hari ini UMNO dipenuhi oleh gen-gen yang resesif.

Begitu jauh cara berpolitik UMNO dan PAS. Jika dalam PAS kepentingan parti melebihi kepentingan peribadi sebaliknya pula dalam UMNO. Jika dalam PAS kata putus ketua jarang dipertikaikan dikhalayak sebaliknyanya pula dalam UMNO. Jika dalam PAS bintang yang berkerlipan diberi peluang untuk bersinar walaupun dari wilayah lain, hasilnya kualiti yang ada didalam PAS jauh melebihi kualiti didalam UMNO.

UMNO juga sudah hilang idealisma perjuangan. Tiada pejuang yang betul2 iklhas berjuang untuk bangsa dan negara. Banyak pejuang berjuang untuk wang!. Bintang-bintang yang dahulu dilihat sebagai pejuang kononya, apabila diletak ditampuk kuasa segera perjuangannya layu ditasik penuh madu.

Soalanya kini adakah sudah sampai masa untuk UMNO tersungkur akibat sudah tiada lagi nilai intrinsiknya? Jika dilihat hanya UMNO sahaja parti yang paling lama didunia yang masih memegang tampuk kuasa dan pangkal tahta mereka semakin haus dan menunggu masa untuk tumbang.

Aneh sekali kawan-kawan ku disana masih tidak sedar realiti ini. Tidak berapa lama lagi tiada apa yang hendak direbutkan lagi.


Thursday, April 9, 2009

Masa untuk Bikin Serupa Cakap

Teka teki telah berakhir. Kabinet sudah dibentuk oleh DSN. Itu haknya sebagai Perdana Menteri. Beliau mempunyai sifir beliau dalam menentukan halatuju negara.

Banyak komen dan positif dan negatif yang bertebaran . Itu juga hak masing-masing. Masing-masing ada pandangan tersendiri mengikut acuan kepentingan sendiri. Hakikatnya itu pilihan yang kita ada. Sudah menjadi resam politik, yang dipilih ke MT lah yang akan memikul tanggungjawab mentadbir negara. Sebab itulah ahli politik kita bermatian berkempen untuk menang.

Yang penting waktu untuk bekerja tanpa slogan -slogan indah , tanpa retorik kosong dan tanpa konsep-konsep yang tidak membawa erti apa-apa.

Tidak perlu slogan Bersih Cekap dan Amanah - bekerja sahaja dengan bersih, cekap dan amanah. Tidak perlu cemerlang, gemilang terbilang - bekerja sahaja dengan tulus dan telus. Tak perlu konsep Islam Hadhari yang tidak diajar oleh nabi. Bekerjalah berpaksikan nilai-nilai keadilan yang ditekankan Islam. Itu sudah memadai.

'Walk the talk' kata orang putih, 'Cakap serupa bikin' kata orang kita. Inilah ujian yang akan menjadi kayu ukur kepimpinan DSN. Buktikan bahawa pentadbiran beliau mendahulukan rakyat dalam agenda pembangunannya bukan kepentingan-kepentingan komersial dan para saudagar yang hanya mau mengaut keuntungan tanpa sebarang tanggungjawab sosial.

Banyak yang boleh beliau lakukan. Terlalu banyak. Mungkin beliau boleh bermula dengan tindakan mengurangkan kenaikkan tol dengan membeli semua konsesi (kalau boleh) utama dan mengenakan caj minimal dengan jangkamasa yang lebih panjang. Beliau boleh mengurangkan tarif air yang dijangka naik 35% dengan mengambil langkah-langkah yang wajar kearah itu.

Beliau boleh mengurangkan pembaziran dan penyelewengan dengan memberi MACC kebebasan untuk membuat siasatan terhadap sesiapa sahaja yang disyaki melakukan penyelewengan tanpa campur tangan politik. Senarai yang ada terlalu panjang.

Hakikatnya tugas DSN adalah untuk mengembalikan tahap professional pentadbiran negara.
DSN tidak perlu tunduk kepada tekanan jika ia dilakukan dengan betul. Kita masih menunggu pembelian helikopter bagi menggantikan nuri. Kepentingan anggota keselamatan hendak didahulukan berbanding kepentingan ahli politik lidah bercabang.

Siapapun yang dilantik tidak penting. Yang penting adakah mereka sedar bahawa tindak tanduk mereka akan menentukan siapa yang akan memerintah negara pada PRU 13 nanti. Jadi berhentilah berlagak seperti maharaja dengan pengawal peribadi keliling pinggang. Hiduplah seperti rakyat marhaen yang lain keran kuasa sebenar ada ditangan mereka.

Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Permulaan yang tidak memberahikan bagi PM Baru

Seperti dijangka kedua-dua bukit yang dipertandingkan gagal ditawan oleh BN. Kedua dua bukit tidak menunjukkan ransangan kepada gerakkan BN. Jika ini boleh dianggap referendum kepada kepimpinan Datuk Seri Najib maka perjalanan beliau masih berliku. Mungkin ada analisa yang menyatakan ini bukan ukuran populariti DSN dan hanya satu insiden terpencil. Katalah apa pun namun kita tidak dapat lari dari hakikat bahawa BN tewas di dua bukit dengan kekalahan yang jelas. Tidak ada tapi, tidak ada alasan. Kekalahan tetap kekalahan.

Walau apapun diatas semangat demokrasi kita harus mengucapkan tahniah kepada PR diatas kemenangan mereka. Kemenangan ini sebenarnya menjadi pendorong moral kepada PR dan akan memberi impak psikologi yang serius kepada BN.

Jika ulasannya "Status quo" yang sedia ada kekal (seperti tajuk berita NST) ia hanya menunjukkan ketidak upayaan BN meleraikan "status quo" tersebut. Jika ulasannya jentera BN kelam kabut dan ada ketua cawangan/bahagian main wayang, bayangkan jika kita berada di PRU 13 nanti.

Ada sahabat yang memberi komen begini "jika seorang dah UMNO kau cakap apa pun dia tetap UMNO dan jika seorang tu PR kau cakap apa pun dia tetap PR, yang hendak dipengaruhi adalah manusia-manusia atas pagar". Jika benar begitu, manusia atas pagar dan semakin hilang. Ramai yang sudah memihak. Jika dilihat pecahan undi kemungkinan pecahan nya adalah 50:50, mungkinkah kita akan melihat kerajaan campuran BN/PR pada PRU 13? kerana aku menjangka tidak akan ada parti yang akan mempunyai majoriti yang cukup kuat untuk membentuk kerajaan.

Secara peribadi aku rasa UMNO sedang bingung. Tak tahu macamnana nak menangani semua perubahan yang mendadak. Tak tahu apa yang hendak diubah ( sebab tidak pernah diberitahu apa yang patut diubah - posting aku terdahulu). Ini ditambah dengan rakan-rakan gabungan yang dah kena strok!. Dah hampir lumpuh separuh badan.

Adakah ini isyarat kematian UMNO?. Belum lagi tetapi tabuh telah mula berbunyi untuk MIC, Gerakan dan MCA!

Apapun in tentu sekali tidak memberahikan langsung. Jika DSN tidak memulakan 'foreplay' dengan baik, beliau mungkin mendapat 'premature ejaculation', prematurely ejected from the seat that supposed to be his destiny.

I can see now DSAI standing in the corner hardly able to contain his wild imagination at this mouth watering signal!

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

The Crash of 2009 and The Collpased of 2010

I've taken the liberty to paste below an article (appeared in Global Reserach) by Humayun Ghauhar, a political analyst of possible collapse of US economy which shall have a dire impact on Malaysia since they are our largest trading partner. The view forwarded by Mr Ghauhar echoes those of Ron Paul ( US Congressman), Gerald Celente ( Top Trend Forecaster) , Max Keiser , Roubini and other long list of names.

The scenario painted by the article may sound far fetch but not umimaginable altogether. When the of collapsed USSR was predicted 15 years before the actual event, many people scoff at the suggestion.

I hope Malaysia's strategic planners take this scenario in their strategic planning.

Letter to my sonMy dear Muhammad Ali:

I told you that it's a funny world getting funnier. Many American analysts are saying that America's real economic collapse could come by the end of this year. "It will come to be known as 'The Crash of 09', they say. Others, especially a Russian political analyst, are predicting its physical collapse too. There's no doubt that the country is up the dirtiest of imaginable creeks without a paddle. But what's amazing is that America remains mired in stunning denial, continuing to make bad situations worse with useless bailout plans and messing around with the world instead of facing up to the reality that its time as a hyper-power is up, that's its economic system has failed and that its only recourse is to end its adversarial doctrine and get out of its lost wars as painlessly and honourably as possible.

There's no point in going on flogging dead horses. The only sensible thing that survival demands is to craft a new moral economic and financial system and a moral foreign policy.The deep recession verging on depression that we have seen so far was caused by the crash in the US housing market. Since other developed industrialised nations, especially of Europe, were aping the shenanigans of unchecked and poorly regulated American bankers and financiers, the collapse of their markets, banks and economies followed like dominoes.

Iceland was the first to officially declare bankruptcy. Its GDP is only about $6.5 billion but its banks had lent something like $65 billion while its regulators were asleep on the wheel. Britain has not declared bankruptcy officially but we all know that it is bankrupt for all intents and purposes and none of its banks and financial institutions has any legs left.However, this is only the aperitif. Wait for the crash of US commercial real estate, which analysts think will happen by autumn this year. Shops are closing down and there's no one to rent them.

Companies are retrenching and freeing up a lot of office space or closing down entirely and vacating even more precious office space with no one to rent it again. Huge skyscrapers are becoming ghost-scrapers. All this expensive commercial real estate is mortgaged to the hilt. With no rental income coming in, the loans against them will become difficult to service and there will be fearsome default. There's insurance and re-insurance here also and the amounts involved are mind-boggling. No bailout plan would come even close to coping.

When the commercial real estate collapse comes, all hell will break loose. And if multinationals like General Motors and Ford call it a day, it won't just be thousands upon thousands of people unemployed (though its heartless to use the word 'just' here). Two entire towns will be become ghost towns. That's terrible. If you count the number of people - wives, children and parents - who are dependent on those incomes, it becomes worse than terrible. It becomes absolutely and totally unconscionable, while corrupt and greedy bankers and the likes of Bernie Madoff have made off with billions - perhaps trillions - of dollars and are still doing so because "our contracts say so.".

Then there is Professor Igor Nikolavich Panarin whom I came across in a December 2008 article by Andrew Osborne of the Wall Street Journal no less, not some fly-by-night rag. If he has got it right, next year will come to be known as 'The Collapse of 2010' for that is when the USA will disintegrate into six separate entities. Those six entities, says Prof Panarin, are The California Republic, The Central North American Republic, Atlantic America, The Texas Republic, Hawaii and Alaska going back to Russia.With millions of Chinese living on America's eastern seaboard (The People's Daily's circulation there alone is over five million) The California Republic, Prof Panarin thinks, will either be part of China or come under Chinese influence.

The Central North American Republic will be part of Canada or under Canadian influence, Atlantic America may join the European Union, The Texas Republic will be part of Mexico or under Mexican influence and Hawaii will go either to Japan or China.Prof Panarin is a former KGB analyst and a Russian professor of political science, Dean of the Ministry of the Foreign Affairs Diplomatic Academy in Moscow and author of several books on geopolitics. Thus one can hardly call him a fruitcake. Actually, he first made this prediction not after the economic meltdown that started last year but in Linz, Austria, in September 1998 in front of 400 delegates at a conference devoted to information warfare and the use of data to get an edge over a rival. Of course it was received with consternation. "When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he says.

Later, many delegates asked him to sign copies of the map. Its like when the French political scientist Emmanuel Todd made his famous forecast in 1976 about the collapse of the Soviet Union 15 years before it actually did and many people laughed. But Todd had the last laugh.Prof Panarin doesn't say that America's collapse is a forgone conclusion. "There's a 55-45 percent chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. But if it comes it will be driven by three factors - "mass immigration, economic decline and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the US will break into six pieces... He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the US. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the Union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The US will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in."

All we Pakistanis thus have to do is hang in there and soon America will not be meddling in our affairs any more, what to talk of General Patraeus's adviser David Kilcullen saying that Pakistan could fall apart in five or six months.It's not easy to comprehend the collapse of an empire or a superpower. When termites are eating away at their vitals for years one cannot see it. People are too much in thrall of their power, wealth and panoply.

Thus when the collapse comes it seems sudden, and takes people by surprise. "I went to sleep last night and when I woke up next morning the Soviet Union was gone." The most powerful war machine ever built couldn't save it. Remember the British Empire on which "the sun would never set"? It set so firmly that only six decades later Britain is not only bankrupt, it has become America's appendage, a third rate power and could itself disintegrate soon with Scotland seceding. The history of the world is replete with the demise of civilisations, empires and superpowers. The graveyards of nations are full of their bones.

That there may be something to what Prof Panarin says is borne out by the fact that the late Bush Administration made contingency plans to impose martial law in case of economic collapse or massive and violent social unrest with blood on the streets. His predictions seem plausible, even probable, if all the dire scenarios come right, as they have thus far.

According to Rand Clifford the US has already made plans to "round up insurgent US citizens" and detain them in what are called "Rex 84" camps. Plus they have made "safe facilities" for members of Congress and their families. A report by the Phoenix Business Journal says: "A new report by the US Army and War College talks about the possibility of Pentagon resources and troops being used should the economic crisis lead to civil unrest, such as protests against businesses and government or runs on beleaguered banks."

The Journal's story quote from the War College report: "Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defence establishment to reorient priorities in extremist to defend basic domestic order and human security." It needs saying that the military regularly makes plans for the most dire of situations, however seemingly unlikely.Let Zbigniew Brzezinski, former National Security Advisor to President Jimmy Carter and an early supporter of Barack Obama have the last word.

The US is "going to have millions and millions of unemployed people really facing dire straits. And we're going to be having that for some period of time before things hopefully improve. And at the same time there's public awareness of this extraordinary wealth that was transferred to a few individuals at levels without historical precedent in America...hell there could even be riots."The writer is a senior political analyst E-mail: humayun.gauhar@gmail.com

Monday, April 6, 2009

Dan bermulalah Episod gosok menggosok dan jilat menjilat

Jika anda rajin membelek akhbar NST, silalah selak ke mukasurat 29. Ia bukan berita atau op ed, ia hanyalah satu iklan semukasurat oleh sebuah syarikat tersenarai BSKL. Tetapi iklan ini sangat menarik perhatian aku...

Apa yang menarik tentang iklan ini ialah ia mengucapkan tahniah. Itu pun perkara biasa, tetapi ia mengucapkan tahniah kepada 'FIRST LADY of MALAYSIA' -Ini tentu sekali luar biasa, sebab first lady yang diberi ucapan itu adalah Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor isteri PM ke 6. Adakah ini bermakna 'First Gentleman' Malaysia adalah Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak?

Setahu aku 'First Couple' bagi Malaysia adalah YDP Agong. Ini kita kena tanya pakar yang tahu ehwal protokol negara. Tetapi apa pun kita tak boleh menyalahkan mereka kerana yang mencetak iklan ini adalah pihak ketiga. Mengapa ia tidak mengucapkan tahniah kepada si suami dahulu tidaklah aku ketahui sebabnya. Mungkin they know who hold ball...hehehe

Tetapi ini adalah lumrah alam dinegara yang berbilang kaum seperti di Malaysia. Sebaik sahaja 'game changing move' berlaku maka bermulalah episod tolak menolak, gosok menggosok dan jilat menjilat sekalipun ia kelihatan terlalu memualkan.

Lagipun musim berbahagi harta rampasan perang baru nak bermula.....

Aku sertakan sekali sajak mereka untuk 'our first lady' untuk tatapan kita semua...

Here's to the lady...
Who guides and inspires
not by quoting others philosophies but...
By living her good examples

Here's to the lady...
Who can rise above life's challenges and moves on
Who knows not only what she wants....
but what she has to offer in return ( get the drift???)

ok..ok..aku tak larat nak habiskan..nak gi tandas nak muntah.....


Sunday, April 5, 2009

Catatan Rasa

Angin yang dikhabarkan akan membawa perubahan bertiup dari puncak Seri Perdana.

Kala bumi watan ini hampir kontang oleh kekecewaan.

Angin sepoi-sepoi yang dikhabarkan membawa seribu harapan dengannya.

Berlagu angin itu dengan syair-syair lunak ditelinga.

Dan gendang pun dipalu.

Gegak gempita bunyinya keseluruh pelusuk alam .

Diperdengarkan seluruh pelusuk negeri oleh sekelian juak.

Dengarlah oleh mu wahai sekelian umat, telah datang angin yang dijanjikan,

telah datang angin yang diharapkan.

Bangun oleh mu mendatang sembah, percaya oleh mu akan janji kami.

Telah datang angin yang akan membawa perubahan.

Angin segar dari kedinginan malam tasek putrajaya

menghembus Sri Perdana yang indah berseri

Se seri Rosmah yang cantik sekali

Barangkali akan diubahsuai lagi

sesuai dengan selera tuan yang terkini

Ini takdir kami katanya lagi

Dan kami disini masih menanti

masih cuba memahami

apa ertinya semua ini

Dapatkah lagu perubahan memahami gelora rakyat marhaen seperti kami

yang bergelut mencari sesuap nasi untuk anak isteri

yang tidak merasa titisan ransangan ekonomi

yang masih terperap di meja menteri

Dapatkah lagu perubahan memahami

Kami masih begini

walau siapapun Perdana Menteri

Friday, April 3, 2009

The end of a flip flop legacy.

Dan tamatlah satu lagi bab dalam sejarah pemgurusan negara yang bernama Malaysia. Tamatlah legasi Perdana Menteri yang 'flip flop' dan dianggap paling lemah dalam sejarah negara. He bungled even on his last performance as a serving Prime Minister, that is to hand his resignation to the Agung and to get his consent on the appointment of the next Prime Minister. The Istana Negara has to correct his office and the office of Chief Secretary on the proper protocol. What a shame. What a shame.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Najib Melengkapkan teori RAHMAN

Datuk Seri Mohd Najib akan melengkapkan teori RAHMAN yang selalu disebut-sebut sebelum ini. Kepada yang tidak mengetahui kewujudan atau apa dia teori RAHMAN eloklah kembali kedalam selimut anda.
Siapa yang mencipta teori RAHMAN tidaklah kita ketahui dengan jelas. Yang nyata ia menimbulkan persoalan apa atau siapa selepas RAHMAN.
Hakikatnya DSN akan menjadi Menteri Perdana yang paling enigmatik dan problematik buat Malaysia. Menteri Perdana yang ke enam negara bukan sahaja berhadapan dengan sebuah parti yang retak dan usai, mengemudi sebuah negara kecil yang berhadapan dengan krisis ekonomi global yang paling serius dalam sejarah dunia malah beliau berhadapan dengan krisis persepsi yang mempersoalkankan kredibiliti moralnya selaku Ketua eksekutif Malaysia.
Disamping beliau ialah isteri tercinta yang juga mempunyai masalah persepsi dan kredibiliti yang dipersoalkan. Tidak pernah ada sebelum beliau, seorang isteri Menteri Perdana yang dilihat amat berkuasa, sama berkuasa seperti suaminya. Sama ada semua dakwaan itu benar atau tidak bukanlah persoalan utama. Malah ada yang mendakwa beliau sudahpun mempunyai pejabat beliau sendiri di Kementerian Kewangan!. Lucu bunyinya cerita ini tetapi ia menunjukkan keupayaan dan pengaruh beliau.
Jika dilihat dari beberapa tindakan beliau kebelakangan ini, DSN menunjukkan kemampuan dirinya sebagai pemain politik yang hebat. Malah pihak pembangkang sendiri melalui beberapa komen-komen pemimpin mereka seolah-olah cuba mendesak Abdullah supaya tidak meletak jawatan. Apakah mereka telah salah percaturan?. Mungkin petembungan politik pembangkang dan DSN akan menjadi konfrantasi yang brutal? Aku beranggapan begitu, memandangkan pembangkang tidak mempunyai rasa hormat kepada DSN bagaimana DSN hendak menunjukkan hormat kepada mereka?
Paklah juga rasanya mempunyai pandangan yang sama. Ucapan beliau di PWTC dan temuramah beliau dengan media kemudiannya menunjukkan beliau menyeru DSN untuk terus mengamalkan sikap terbuka dengan demokrasi negara. Pembangkang yang dahulunya begitu bersungguh-sungguh menjatuhkan Pak Lah kini mendapati beliau adalah pilihan yang lebih baik .
Apapun aku menjangkakan yang politik Malaysia akan menjadi lebih meriah dengan berbagai -bagai tuduhan demi tuduhan. Lazimnya di negara ini khabar angin lebih dipercayai berbanding media arus perdana. Bagaiamankah DSN menangani semua ini? apakah bahan peledak c4 akan digunakan lagi? Tungggguuuuu.....