Thursday, July 30, 2009
Wajarkah kita melabel Mufti sebagai Pelacur
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Marwa El Sharbini - The Icon of Europe Fear and Hypocrysy
Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Islam yang kita pilih
Monday, July 27, 2009
Saturday, July 25, 2009
The Europe Muslim Factor
Yet, the Muslim thinkers are ignorant of what this positive development can do to impact the policy direction of European governments. That is the probloem when you are too fractured.
Why not the muslim nations with over population problem flood europe with muslims?
Europe’s Muslim Factor
Population’s increasingly significantrole in continent’s politics could impact Mideast policy.
By Dinah Spritzer
Protest in London Jan. 3 against Israel's operation in Gaza that was organized by the Palestine Solidarity Campaign, Stop the War Coalition, British Muslim Initiative and others. Photo: Claudia Vieira / Creative Commons
Vivian Teitelbaum was a new member of Brussels’ regional legislature when she sponsored a bill in 2005 to renew the region’s scientific and industrial research agreement with Israel.
Legislators had frozen the cooperation pact three years earlier to protest what they said was the Jewish state’s inhumane response to the Second Palestinian Intifada. However, when Teitelbaum’s proposal came up for discussion at a committee meeting, she said Socialist Party opponents shouted her down.
“The only lawmakers who showed up to the meeting were Muslim,” recalled Teitelbaum, a Jewish member of the Liberal Party. “They screamed insults at me, saying, ‘Israel is a fascist country. You will never get this passed.’”
Later, at the actual vote, Teitelbaum again was shouted down. Her proposal was defeated.
Ten minutes later, she said, “we voted for an agreement between Libya and the Brussels region, and everyone supported it. It was very painful for me.”
Although rarely discussed in Europe, the political impact and influence of the continent’s growing Muslim population is playing an increasingly significant role in European politics. In some cases, politicians are catering to Muslim interests and concerns, with an eye toward winning votes. In others, anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant political parties are capitalizing on a backlash against Muslims to expand their power base.
With Muslims now roughly 5 percent of Europe’s population and demographers predicting their proportion to double over the next 20 years due to birthrate disparities, their rising political awareness and ever-growing constituent base is likely to make them a factor in Europe’s political constellation for decades to come.
Eventually, that may translate into a tougher stance toward Israel, said Robin Shepherd, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
“As Muslims become more electorally significant, the obvious casualty is Israel,” he said.
Many European politicians, particularly those from socialist parties, long have been strong critics of Israel’s dealings with the Palestinians without any prodding from European Muslims.
When the streets of Europe exploded in January during Israel’s 22-day operation against Hamas in Gaza, top European political figures were among those who participated in protests against the Israeli operation.
In Stockholm, the head of Sweden’s Socialist Party and the country’s former foreign minister joined 8,000 protesters Jan. 10 in a mostly Muslim demonstration full of anti-Israel slogans. In Spain, representatives of Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero attended a rally in which some participants called for jihad, praised Hezbollah and cursed Israel. After the protest, which drew 100,000 people, the vast majority of them non-Muslims, the Israeli Embassy in Madrid took the rare step of openly chastising the prime minister for fueling anti-Israel anger.
Some analysts believe Europe’s Muslims will exert further pressure on political leaders when it comes to Mideast policy.
“Muslim-related issues will be a growing focus and shaper of the European political scene,” the U.S. National Intelligence Council noted in its forward-looking 2025 global trends report. “Ongoing societal and political tension over integration of Muslims is likely to make European policymakers increasingly sensitive to the potential domestic repercussions of any foreign policies for the Middle East, including aligning with the U.S. on policies seen as pro-Israeli.”
Yet despite their rapid growth rate, Muslims will not be able to dictate foreign or domestic policy in Europe anytime soon, the report said. For one thing, in some European countries up to 50 percent of Muslims do not have citizenship or national voting rights, according to some estimates.
Among Muslims in Europe generally, there is no hard data on what percentage are citizens with national voting rights, since European countries do not collect citizenship or immigration data by religion. Experts interviewed estimated that only about half of Europe’s Muslims are citizens; those who are not include recent immigrants, those whose home countries prohibit dual citizenship and immigrants unable to meet stringent citizenship requirements.
The proportions of Muslims who are citizens are higher in France and Britain, countries with long histories of Muslim immigration, and lower in Germany, where until 2000 the children of immigrants born in the country were not automatically granted citizenship.
The vast majority of Muslim immigrants to the continent hold legal residency permits, akin to green cards, which give them the right to vote in local elections but not national elections. In recent years, as concerns over the cultural integration of Europe’s Muslim population have risen, some countries have made their citizenship tests much harder. In the Netherlands, applicants must demonstrate a certain level of financial independence and approval of Dutch values, such as affirmation of gender equality and tolerance of homosexuality.
Another factor limiting Muslim influence on European foreign policy is that the primary concerns of Muslims in Europe, who tend to be poorer than average, are economic, not religious issues, according to a 2006 Pew Research Center survey.
Rather than forming political parties of their own, Muslim voters have helped strengthen socialist and other left-leaning parties that cater to disadvantaged populations.
Nowhere is Muslim political influence in Europe more evident than in Belgium, where fully one-third of the residents of the capital city of Brussels are Muslim. This is more than in any other major European city except for Marseilles, France, which has roughly the same proportion of Muslims. In some of Brussels’ local municipalities, Muslims account for 80 percent of the population.
Following the last election of the Brussels regional legislature in 2004, half the 26 legislators from the Socialist Party were of Muslim background, a record high for that legislature. Some Belgians attribute the strong showing by the socialists in that election to the party’s outreach to Muslim immigrants and the record number of candidates with Muslim names on the ticket.
Ermeline Gosselin, a spokeswoman for the Socialist Party in Belgium, insists that no one in her party looks at religion or ethnicity when selecting candidates.
“We are proud to represent Belgians of all backgrounds,” she said.
The mere discussion of Muslim political influence is taboo in some corners of Europe. Several European academics interviewed refused to consider the issue, arguing that it is misguided and possibly racist because it addresses the religious rather than economic or cultural concerns of Muslim immigrants.
Susanne Nies, head of the French Institute of International Relations in Brussels, said religion plays no role in Europe’s secular politics.
“If you want to talk about being critical of Israel, that is a feeling among many Europeans, so how can you characterize that as Muslim?” she said. “There is no such thing as a Muslim issue in Europe or growing Muslim influence on politicians.”
To be sure, many European politicians have their biases against Israel. On Jan. 23, Bert Anciaux, minister of culture, youth and sport in the Flemish government in Belgium, compared a deadly attack that day by a deranged gunman on a nursery school near Brussels to Israel’s recent operation in Gaza. The Belgian Foreign Ministry later distanced itself from the remark.
Shepherd said the 2008 mayoral campaign in London is a revealing example of Muslim influence in European politics.
In 2005, London Mayor Ken Livingstone accused Israel of ethnic cleansing and called then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon a war criminal. His criticism of Israel helped win him the support of Azzam Tamimi, director of the London-based Institute of Islamic Political Thought and a public supporter of Hamas and Palestinian suicide bombers.
Tamimi mobilized British Muslims to support the mayor in his re-election bid last May, forming a group called Muslims 4 Ken that lambasted Livingstone’s opponent for supporting Israel. Ultimately, however, Livingstone failed to win a third term, losing to Boris Johnson.
“Livingstone definitely sought Muslim support by slamming Israel,” Shepherd said.
European governments increasingly are afraid of offending Muslims, Shepherd said, leading them to refrain from criticizing Islamic attitudes toward women or even toward terrorism.
“This is a potentially volatile constituency, as we saw with the Danish cartoon controversy,” Shepherd said, referring to the widespread Muslim rioting in 2005 that followed publication in a Danish newspaper of cartoons featuring the prophet Muhammad. Government leaders made sure to criticize publication of the cartoons, even as they defended free speech, Shepherd noted.
Jana Hybaskova, head of the Israel committee in the European Parliament, said that despite the hostility of many European Muslim organizations toward the Jewish state, they rarely petition lawmakers on Israel-related issues. Presuming that Muslims share all the same political goals is a mistake, she added.
“To see Muslim as common denominator is like seeing Christians as all the same,” Hybaskova said. “I don’t see any common denominator on policy.”
One major obstacle to Muslim political power is the absence of any significant pan-European Muslim political organization. Muslims even have trouble organizing politically within their own countries in Europe. In France, the French Council of the Muslim Faith, a Muslim umbrella organization created in 2002 at the behest of then-Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, has been virtually paralyzed by a rivalry between its Algerian and Moroccan factions.
The level of political activism among Muslims varies from country to country. In Britain, Muslims vote in higher proportions than non-Muslims, whereas in Belgium, the Muslim vote is below average.
Another major obstacle, according to Riva Kastoryano, director of research at Sciences Politique in Paris and an author of several books on Islam in Europe, is the relative poverty of Muslims. Muslims are not “in an economic position in Europe to make a big impact in politics,” she said.
Muslim organizations often are completely in the dark about how to lobby government officials for their most pressing needs, Kastoryano observed. In some cases, Muslim groups have even sought the help of Jewish groups.
“In Germany a few years back, when there was a wave of anti-Muslim violence, Muslim clerics turned to Jewish leaders to ask how to get government support,” she said.
In France and several other countries, Muslims have turned to Jewish organizations for help in acquiring government permission to continue to use halal meat — kosher for Muslims — when the method of Muslim slaughter risked violating local ordinances.
As for the few politicians in Europe of Muslim backgrounds, they tend to care more about loyalty to party, not Islamic ideology. On the national level, they’re also all secular.
“I am a socialist first, then Dutch, then someone with a Turkish-Kurdish background,” said Sadet Karabulut, a Dutch member of Parliament, whose parents are from eastern Turkey.
Asked whether her religion affects her political choices, Karabulut said, “My parents are Muslims, and it is my background, but I am not. It’s not important for me.”
Last October, Rotterdam became the first major city in Europe to elect a Muslim mayor, Ahmed Aboutaleb. Aboutaleb, who holds dual Dutch and Moroccan citizenship, has a reputation as a bridge builder between minority and majority groups. In 2004, after the murder of Dutch filmmaker Theo Van Gogh by an Islamic extremist, Aboutaleb told an audience at an Amsterdam mosque that Muslims who do not like Dutch values should leave the country.
That is little comfort to politicians like Teitelbaum, who points out that socialist politicians who used to condemn Turkey’s denial of the Armenian genocide now stay silent for fear of offending Belgium’s large Turkish community.
Teitelbaum sees it as further evidence of pandering to an increasingly influential political constituency.
When, in 2005, Teitelbaum sponsored a bill condemning a resurgence of anti-Semitism in Belgium, the bill could not pass until she generalized the bill, adding condemnation of “racism and xenophobia.” She was even urged by some colleagues to remove the word “anti-Semitism” from the bill.
She refused.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
1 Malaysia
Jika UMNO tidak mampu, apakah PAS berupaya?
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
NASIHAT USTAZ HARUN TAIB KEPADA UMNO
Ini semua salah BN semate. Maslahat ini tidak ada kena mengena dengan PAKATAN RAKYAT! Tidak ada anak -anak orang PAKATAN RAKYAT terlibat dalam kerja haram jadah ni. Di Negeri PAKATAN RAKYAT tidak ada kelakuan sebegini. Diulangi tidak ada kelakuan sebegini!We are Clean!.
Sementara itu mari kita melihat sedikit lembaran Sejarah sejarah yang menimpa umat Islam yang bercakaran sesama sendiri. Yang merasa diri mereka lebih batul dari yang satu lagi
Monday, July 20, 2009
Kisah Bomoh Temberang dan Ahli Politik Temberang
Sunday, July 19, 2009
PAS sudah menjiwai konsep 1 Malaysia
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Ujian Pertama 1 Malaysia
Friday, July 17, 2009
Kematian yang sangat Tragik
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
Apabila kuali mengata punggung periuk hitam legam
Monday, July 13, 2009
PRICELESS!!!-
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
The Second Wave of Economic Storm
By: Roy F GriederJun 28, 2009
Astonishing to me is the fact that no one seems to understand the ultimate result of the current policies and practices of Washington D.C. and the Federal Reserve Bank, the Fed. I have studied our economic situation for about 3 hours per day for the last 8 months and conclude we are bankrupt. Think about the facts.
Certainly most of the automobile industry, the airlines, 37 out of 50 states, are bankrupt. The lending industry, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac are bankrupt. Insurance giant AIG, bankrupt. The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, or PBGC, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or FDIC, Social Security including Medicare and Medicaid are rapidly approaching insolvency.
In 1929 personal and corporate debt had risen to 365% of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, before the Crash. We are now at 375% of GDP. So all of this excessive credit got us into this mess in the first place, right?. And the government and Fed solution to this mess is to print up an extra trillion dollars or so, give it to the lending industry and yell “Lend!, Lend!”. That should work, right?.
Remember TARP?, the money given to the banks and others to remove their “Toxic Assets” (sorry too harsh, let’s rename them “Troubled Assets.) Well, the toxins still remain. They exist in the form of Financial Derivatives, Credit Default Swaps, or CDS, and Collateralized Debt Obligations, or CDO. These financial instruments sound complicated, and they are. They are the inventions of Wall Street wunderkinds, the ones that get paid a couple of millions per year for their “brilliance“. The worldwide market (if you could call it that) or value of CDS is in the neighborhood of 600 trillion dollars, or 10 times the entire Worlds yearly economic output. How the banks and insurance giants are to clear their balance sheets of these toxins is no mystery . They cannot. Was it wise to take TARP money, 20 billion dollars, give it to General Motors when their market cap (the value of their common stock) was 985 million?. Will they pay us back?. No. They are bankrupt. The TARP was a fraud from the start, but it has bought the powers that be some time. Time, time for what?
There is a fever pitch rush to consolidate control over us by the government and the Fed. Look what they are doing to the banks, insurance, lending institutions, auto industry, airlines. Let’s now add health care. By the way, let’s appoint czars and give them power not granted by the Constitution. Why?, what’s the rush? To gain control before we go “out of control”?.
And now 37 out of 50 bankrupt states need to raise fees and taxes, and so does our federal government to pay for “free” healthcare. Raise taxes during a deep recession?, worked great in the early 1930’s, right?. Are these people idiots? Yes they are. Why not have a 2 trillion dollar deficit this year, and run up the national debt to 20 trillion dollars in a few years. Interest on the debt would only be 1 trillion a year at 5 per cent. Chump change. Government borrowing on such a massive scale will compete for the money in the open market and will make overall interest rates rise . Rates already rose a few weeks ago during a large treasury auction. Watch this carefully, mortgage rates will respond by going up. Think what this will do to the already very ill housing market.
Some “experts” as of late say they see “green shoots”, signs of economic recovery. What they “see” may be self-serving or it could be these people are delusional. The Fed Chief, Treasury Secretary, Congress and the President are lying to us. We are bankrupt and they know it. You can put a bandage on a gangrenous appendage and it looks fine, but if the appendage is not amputated the body will die. A bandage is all that is being applied to this gangrenous economy. Toxic.
So, where are we headed?. I suppose the Fed and the Treasury could just continue to print more money. Right up to the point it becomes worthless. The Weimar Republic of 1930’s Germany tried this. In the end the “money” was used to start a fire in a stove or was used as toilet paper. D.C. is too smart for this, right? Is there another way out of this mess?.
During my research I floated the following question to 10 people of various economic means. “If you were told you had no more debt but got to keep what you had, but also you had nothing in your bank or 401K or stocks or IRA, just start anew” 9 out of 10 replied “That works for me”. Astounding, but very telling. How these people responded, along with my research, and what is unfolding (actually unraveling) leads me to the following.
We are going to wake up one morning and Matt Lauer will inform us of the following. “I’ve got good news and bad news for you, America. The good news, for most of you, is that there is no more debt. No government debt, personal debt or corporate debt. You get to keep what you have, your house, your cars, your flat screen TVs. You owe nothing. The bad news, for some of you, is that there are no assets. Your bank accounts are empty, all stock is worthless, and there is nothing in your 401K or IRA.”
None of our “leaders” in D.C. will want to take the blame for this, and will need an excuse for this. Most people will understand and even forgive how this happened when Matt goes on to say:
“What I have told you is the direct result of a computer virus that has infected the worldwide financial complex that completely melted the balance sheets so that no one knows who owes what to whom anymore. This is why we have to start over. Just think of it as hitting the reset button. Details on the new government monetary system will come out shortly.” Problem solved, all absolved.
When the firestorm arrives, you will be glad you live in New Hampshire. At least here we may have a chance. During the dark days of the 1930’s peoples faith and morality held society together. Not so today sadly. Talk with your family, friends and neighbors. Come up with a plan.Things are about to become ugly. Very Ugly.
MarketOracleUK
Sunday, July 5, 2009
Berhati-hatilah dengan orang-orang yang menjual ayat-ayat tuhan untuk sedikit keuntungan dunia
Malah gambar-gambar Pemimpin Agung ini kini diletakkan didalam dompet bagi mendapat berkat orang yang membawa gambarnya. Gambar pemimpin ini diletak didalam teksi dan kereta untuk mengelakkan kemalangan, di telefon bimbit. malah dikatakan pengikutnya akan mendapat berkat hanya melihat gambarnya sahaja.
Disuatu tempat yang lain lahir satu kumpulan yang juga menggunakan ayat-ayat tuhan untuk menunjukkan gerakan dan aliran pemikiran mereka tidak bertentangan dengan ajaran Islam. Pemimpi gerakan ini menjadi terkenal kerana kebolehan untuk menyembuhkan penyakit dan memakbulkan doa. Pemimpin ini juga juga dkatakan mempunyai hikmah dan karamah. Para pengikut yang datang dari berbagai latar belakang dan agama datang dari segenap pelusuk untuk melihat wajahnya, kononnya untuk mendapat berkat dan memakbulkan hajat. Ada yang datang untuk mencium kaki beliau. Sudah tentulah gerakan ini juga dpat mengumpulkan banyak wang dan aset hasil dari sokongan pengikut-pengikut yang setia.
Saturday, July 4, 2009
AMERICA'S WAR WITH MUSLIM NATIONS
Friday, July 3, 2009
Apabila Tuan Guru Hj Hadi keliru...
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Apabila Pemuda PAS berfikiran Seperti Yahudi....
Tersengeh kerana tajuk wacana yan hendak dibincangkan adalah "Adakah Pejuangan UMNO tidak bertentangan dengan Islam" (klik disini). Aku harus angkat topi kepada Nasruddin Hassan Tantawi kerana bijak dalam permainan politik. Strategi perang beliau sama dengan strategi perang yang Israel gunakan untuk meranapkan musuh-musuhnya. Israel mahu berperang dengan musuhnya tetapi tak mahu musuhnya memiliki sebarang senjata. Dalam ertikata lain Israel hanya mahu berperang bila mereka pasti mereka boleh menang!
Awal-awal lagi Pemuda PAS sudah meletakkan Pemuda UMNO dalam keadaan defensif. Jika Pemuda UMNO masuk gelanggang mereka perlu mempertahankan diri dan PAS hanya perlu menembak sahaja. PAS tak akan terjejas dengan sebarang keputusan wacana. Kalau tak boleh MENANG, keputusannya SERI. BLOODY DAMN GOOD!.
Tetapi jika kita lihat dengan lebih dalam, Pemuda PAS tidak akan mendapat apa-apa, sebaliknya terus memecah belahkan umat Islam di negara ini. Aku tak tahu samada ini strategi utama mereka, tetapi yang menang jadi arang dan yang kalah jadi abu.
Apakah rumusan wacana itu?
1. UMNO tidak bertentangan dengan Islam.
2. UMNO bertentangan dengan Islam.
Adakah PAS akan menerima keputusan no 1?. Kalau mereka terima, sejak awal lagi tak payahlah berwacana. PAS hanya akan menerima keputusan no 2 bukan?. Jika begitu adakah 3 juta umat Islam yang menanggotai UMNO terkeluar dari landasan Islam? adakah 3 juta umat itu tidak Islam ? murtad? kafir? jika mereka terkeluar dari Islam apakah hukum nikah kahwin ahli PAS dan UMNO? adakah apabila TGNA menyamakan UMNO dengan ajaran ayah Pin, ini adalah agenda tersusun PAS? maka kita akan kembali ke zaman dimana fatwa mengkafirkan UMNO..Kita tidak menentang UMNO kerana UMNO itu UMNO...kita menentang UMNO kerana......(letakkan sebab mengikut citarasa anda..).
Jika Islam UMNO bertentangan dengan Islam, apa jadi dengan Islam DAP yang tidak menerima negara Islam? Apa jadi Islam PKR yang lebih kurang sama dengan Islam UMNO? apajadi dengan Islam gerakan?MIC?
Bagaimana dengan Islam NU dan Muhammadiyah Indonesia dan ini tidak akan berakhir...?
Apa yang aku nampak dari kelakuan sebegini adalah kesempitan fikiran yang kronik. Islam label melabel ni dah berlaku beratus-ratus tahun lamanya. Kini kita ada Islam Ahli Sunnah , muktazilah, jabariah, wahbbiah, sufi, syiah dan berbagai lagi label. Menambah satu lagi label Islam UMNO tidak akan mengubah apa-apa, malah akan membawa umat Islam lebih jauh dari raeliti dunia global.
Jika kepimpinan ulamak hanya mampu haram mengharam, kafir mengkafir maka kesudahan negara ini tidaklah baik. Aneh sekali apa bila mereka hendak mengharamkan SISTERS IN ISLAM mereka lari dan menyuruh Majlis Fatwa Negara melakukanya. Kenapa tidak berani menjatuhkan hukum sedangkan Nasrudin adalah Ulamak yang meningkat naik? Kalau dah UMNO bertentangan, SIS lagi terukkan?
Aku cadangkan Pemuda PAS berwacana dengan Pemuda UMNO tentang gelombang kejatuhan ekonomi ke dua yang bakal melanda dunia atau bagaimana membangunkan sistem perbankan Islam yang sepatutnya mengambil alih sistem kewangan dunia memandangkan ekonomi telah jatuh merudum.
ataupun perkara-perkara tersebut tidak ada dalam kitab Nasrudin? Aku mungkin orang yang tidak layak memberi nasihat kepada ulamak mulia seperti Nasrudin tetapi dalam usia aku ini, aku sudah melihat bagaimana perpecahan sesama Islam merosakkan masyarakat. Berdakwahlah dengan berhikmah
Salam untuk saudaraku yang diragui Islamnya....
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Inside Iran's Kingdom of Heaven
Di sebuah negara yang diasaskan berdasarkan prinsip Islam, Dimana pemimpin Agungnya dianggap wakil TUHAN - golongan Ayatollah. Tewas juga kepada godaan dunia....
Iran’s Many Wars
June 25, 2009by Behzad Yaghmaian
A specter is haunting Iran, the specter of a bloody civil war. Underneath the heroic movement for democracy by millions of Iranians, we are witnessing the final acts of a protracted war for the control of the Iranian economy, and the possibility of violent confrontations within the conservative block that ruled the country in the past thirty years.
June 12th was a coup d’état by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) against Hashemi Rafsanjani and his family oligarchy. The Iranian economy has been the private turf of a handful of economic and political mafias since the revolution. Hashemi Rafsanjani and his extended family were among the first groups benefiting from Iran’s crony capitalism.
Using his political influence as President of Iran, and Speaker of the Parliament, Rafsanjani created a vast family dynasty. Initiating the liberalization of the economy after the war with Iraq, Rafsanjani ushered an ambitious privatization program, allowing members of his family, and other insiders, to take possession of state property at far bellow market prices. The family made a fortune when Rafsanjani opened the oil industry to private Iranian contractors. By the end of the 1990s, the economic power of the family was unparalleled in Iran’s private sector. In recent years, however, the family dynasty has been facing fierce competition, particularly from IRGC.
Since the 1990s, IRGC slowly transformed itself from a sheer military force, to a complex military, political, and economic oligarchy in control of main arteries of the Iranian economy. It is now a large holding company with multi-billion dollar, legal and illegal, contracts in oil, water, electricity, transport, foreign trade, and other economic sectors.
In 1999, Mehdi Karrubi, then the Speaker of the Parliament, made public IRGC’s smuggling activities through sixty illegal docs. In May 2004, hours after the grand opening of Imam Khomeini Airport in Tehran, armed members of IRGC stormed the compound, closing it down for alleged security reasons. It was later revealed that, using the airport, IRGC had been smuggling goods to the country.
The 2005 presidential victory of Mahmood Ahmadinejad, a former Revolutionary Guard, provided IRGC with a new advantage in its economic war with competitors. Rafsanjani ran unsuccessfully against Ahmadinejad, losing the race due to widespread vote rigging. The election was a turning point in the relationship between ITGC and Rafsanjani. The economic war intensified.
Ahmadinejad vowed to fight and eliminate the “oil mafia.” Appointing veteran guardsmen to cabinet positions, he gave IRGC the control of nine ministries, including Defense, Energy, and the lucrative Ministry of Petroleum, a stronghold of Rafsanjani family, the “oil mafia.”Access to the oil industry proved instrumental for IRGC. The economic war entered a new stage. IRGC aggressively penetrated areas once dominated by the Rafsanjani family.
Since the election of Ahmadinejad in 2005, the National Oil Company of Iran awarded IRGC a no-bid contract to develop the 15th and 16th phases of South Pars Gas, and another contract to build a 600-mile “peace pipeline” from Iran to Pakistan and India. IRGC also received a large contract to build a 900-kilometer pipeline from the Persian Gulf in the south to Sistan and Baluchestan in Iran’s southeast.
Aided by the increase in oil prices, Ahmadinajad pursued populist economic policies, gaining the support of a noticeable section of the electorate. High oil revenue, for a short period, reduced tension between different oligarchies. The decline in oil prices, however, ended the period of peaceful coexistence. A showdown was inevitable. It came during the recent Presidential Elections.
Mahmood Ahamadinejad’s attack on Rafsanjani and his family during his televised debate with Mir Hossein Mousavi was a calculated move, a political maneuver paving the ground for an all out war in later weeks and months. Rafsanjani requested permission to defend himself on Iran’s state-owned television network. His request was rejected. He formally complained to Ayatollah Khamenei. He was ignored, and silenced in the days that followed. Declaring victory in the elections, Ahmadinejad promised to prosecute and bring to justice those he assaulted during his campaign.
The days following June 12th were full of unanticipated developments. Millions of the Iranians poured into the streets, protesting on daily basis. Supporters of Ahmadinejad also waged two separate rallies in Qom, and in front of the Ministry of Justice in Tehran, with slogans against Rafsanjani. Addressing his supporters during Friday prayers at Tehran University on June 19th, Ayatollah Khamenei suggested dealing with Rafsanjani’s family’s economic misconducts through legal channels, while giving full support to Mahmood Ahmadinejad, and ordering a crackdown of all protests. The IRGC coup d’état seemed to have achieved its goal.
Ayatollah Khamenei’s orders to shoot, however, failed to stop people’s fury. The day after, millions poured to the streets of Tehran in an open defiance of the Supreme Leader. Many died, more injured. Violence, however, failed to stop the popular cry for democracy. Unanticipated by IRGC and the Supreme Leader, the continuing street protests opened a new front, influencing the future of the economic war, its winners, and its loses. The powerful democracy movement became the wild card in the battle for the control of Iran, and a possible savior of Rafsanjani in his final battle for survival.
Failing to negotiate a deal, Rafsanjani traveled to Qom, lobbying high-ranking clerics, and using his influence as the head of the Assembly of Experts to create The Council of Leaders to replace Ayatollah Khamenei. Empowered by the constitution to appoint and dismiss the Supreme Leader, the Assembly of Experts is Rafsanjani’s last legal resort in his long battle with IRG and Ayatollah Khamenei.
The removal of the Supreme Leader, if approved by the Assembly of Experts, may, however, prove costly and dangerous, risking a confrontation between various military factions within the ruling elite. Anticipating such an outcome, the Supreme Leader has ordered a reshuffling of top IRGC commanders, removing those suspected of loyalty to Rafsanjani.
Not a monolithic organization, in its leadership, and among the ordinary guards, IRGC may also face possible internal rifts, fracturing in the days and weeks to come. More than one-third of IRGC’s rank and file voted for Mohammad Khatami and his reformist platform in 1997. Dissertation and refusal to shoot at demonstrators remains a possibility. The continuation of the protests may also result in rifts within the Security forces, and the army.
The fight for political reform is intertwined with an entrenched factional struggle within the regime. Unlike 1979 when Iranians fought against a single, and undivided, political and military regime, Iran’s current political elite is divided. Different armed groups back various conservative factions. The rift within the Islamic Republic may be a blessing for the democracy movement, a breathing space for regrouping, and moving forward. It may also be a recipe for an uncontrolled factional violence. The democracy movement may become collateral damage in a larger war. The future remains unclear.
Behzad Yaghmaian
Behzad Yaghmaian is the author of "Social Change in Iran: An Eyewitness Account of Dissent, Defiance, and New Movements for Rights". He is a professor of political economy at Ramapo College of New Jersey. Yaghmaian can be reached at behzad.yaghmaian@gmail.com
Read more articles by Behzad Yaghmaian